CATEGORY 5LIKELY FAILUREBELOW 55
COACHCOST SCORECOMMENT
Saleh, Robert53Should be ranked higher, coached losers
Staley,Brandon53No coordinator experience, associated with losers
Bowles, Todd49Til recently, never a winner, flop with NYJ
Smith, Arthur42Slim coord experience, infrequent winner
Fassel, John36Never a coordinator, short on experience
Riley, Lincoln33Hot shot college HC, No NFL experience
Swinney, Dabo30Hot shot college HC, No NFL experience


So, who do I believe the Texans should hire? If the decision were solely based upon my COST analysis, which is patterned on the best coaches in the past, the “Very Good” group would be the best, although political considerations might immediately remove Wade Philips and Josh Mc Daniels, leaving Dennis Allen, (a Texan, by the way), Pete Carmichael, and Matt Eberflus as prime candidates.

With the exception of Romeo Crennel, who is serving as interim head coach, and Raheem Morris, who is doing the same at Atlanta, any of the “Possible Success” group might be suitable, especially
Reic Bieniemy and Brian Daboll, although I would be mindful of Leslie Frazier’s poor experience in Minnesota. The rest, in my opinion could lead to failure mainly due to lack of experience as coordinators or poor winning tradition. Robert Saleh deserves a comment. By all other measures, except that he has most often be associated with losers, he grades out as an acceptable candidate. Stay away from the college hotshots.

In reality, of course, there is so much more that goes into the decision that my COST score, which is just one measure or data point of many. I suspect the hired coach will come from among my top ten or so.


Who have I left out? Who would you like to se evaluated?

 


THE NFL COACHING GAUNTLET 

Who's running in? Who's running out?

Who's in the middle getting beat up?

CATEGORY 2VERY GOOD75-85
COACHCOST SCORECOMMENT
Phillips, Wade85Deep experience, done it all, a winner
Allen, Dennis80Won everywhere but Oakland
Carmichael, Pete
7811 years a coordinator, a winner
Eberflus, Matt77Strong in all categories, a winner
McDaniels, Josh75Big winner, very experienced, DEN was too soon


WHO SHOULD BE THE NEXT TEXANS' COACH?

http://perfectprocoach.com/​

The Perfect Pro Football Coach





CATEGORY 1
EXCELLENT
ABOVE 85
COACH
COST SCORECOMMENT
NONE


.
Although most head coach terminations occur logically and appropriately at season’s end, every so often an impulsive owner sends a coach packing after only a few games. I suppose the reason for this ridiculous move is the scant hope that an interim coach will somehow save the season from a horrible start. I do not want to dwell on the stupidity of this move except to say that interim coaches never do well. Five wins, maybe.  Moreover, these irrational owners don’t see that they have really fired at least a dozen coaches, all but one of which they expect to stay on and perform well knowing they are out in a few months. Dumb. Already, Dan Quinn in Atlanta and Bill O’Brien in Houston have been sent packing after only a few games in the crazy “co(n)vid oluted” 2020 season.

If history rings true, these two teams and four or five others will need new head coaches for next year. I have spent the past decade studying head coaching patterns in the NFL and have written two books, which discus my observations and conclusions.
“The Perfect Pro Football Coach” sets forth a system I developed for ranking the effectiveness of every NFL head coach since the merger in 1960. I have assigned every one of the more than 300 head coaches a competitive score and ranked them from the best ever (Belichick, of course) on down. I redo the rankings every year.

In
“Tackling the Perfect Pro Football Coach”, I used the data I assembled ranking the coaches to devise a standard for searching for a new head coach.  It is called the “Chance of Success Total (COST)” whereby I assign a point total to prospective coaches, before they are hired based on their resumes. Using the resulting scores, I then forecast the chance a new coach, if hired, will be successful or not. Over the past ten years, in round numbers, had the NFL owners followed my advice the hiring decisions would have been right more than 65% of the time. As it stands, they were right only a dismal 15 % of the time. My forecasts outpaced their very poor decision making by almost four to one.

I do want to very clear that consideration of my COST scores are but one part of a very complicated and multi-faceted hiring process. It is very limited and strictly a incorporates hard historical data. No personalities, leadership, organizational skills, or visceral considerations are considered. Pro football is, of course, a very emotional occupation. I would never recommend that my scores be used alone in hiring decisions.


All the above, notwithstanding. I have processed a number prospective coaches through my COST analysis matrix as they might be suited to become the next new head coach for the Houston, Texans. I selected twenty-five possibilities, gathered mainly from media discussed sources. Each has been assigned a COST score and then grouped as to how I believe their likelihood of success should they become the next Texans head coach. The list includes mostly current NFL assistants, former head coaches, and a few college coaches.


In theory, a coach with a COST score of 100 would be the “perfect” candidate. I have yet to find him. In practice, a COST score of 75 or above indicates that coaches have as good chance to succeed, if hired. The success predictability declines rapidly with the score. Below 65, chances of failure are more likely than success, although these forecasts are not absolute. The calculated scores in the target group of 25 range from a high of 85 to a low of 30.  

Two specific credentials, which weigh heavily in my analysis, evolved out of my study of the on-the-filed performance of the 300 some coaches. The first is that I penalize the score of any hot-shot very successful college head coach jumping straight into the NFL, never having been there before. They just don’t do well. Do they, Chip Kelly? Perhaps a more surprising negative bias in my numbers is that I downgrade candidates who have been NFL head coaches in the past. My numbers substantiate the fact that fully two-thirds of pervious NFL coaches, who are rehired, perform worse in their subsequent jobs.  This situation is hardly absolute (e.g. Don Shula). One final comment is that I have found that it is simply not necessary that a prospective coach has ever been a head coach anywhere else ever before to be successful. Before I studied the coaches, I would have felt otherwise.

Another factor that can significantly impact a COST score is what I have called “winning tradition”. I traced every stop in each coach’s football career including as a player to determine a measure of success of the team he was associated with each year. Winning begets winners. I measured both his overall career record in terms of wins and losses and also in winning seasons. A prospective coach, who was consistently around losers lost points on my analysis.

In order to understand the specific categories and weighting of the COST calculations, the reader is referred to
“Tackling the Perfect Pro Football Coach”, which is available through Amazon. I do plan to analyze the Atlanta search as well.

The following table sets forth the 25 coaching candidates on whom I ran COST analysis scores. They are mainly assistant coaches who occupy either offensive or defensive coordinator positions, which I consider a vitally important job as a stepping stone to head coach. There are also several former head coaches and two highly successful college coaches. I also fully understand that the inclusion of Romeo Crennel, Raheem Morris, and Wade Phillips might be summarily discounted for considerations due to age, previous association with the Texans’ program, or current job, but I opted to include them anyway for comparison purposes.

CATEGORY 4PROBABLE FAILURE55-64
COACHCOST SCORECOMMENT
Toub, Dave61After 20 NFL yrs, never a coord
Woods, Joe60No coord exp, with losers
Roman, Greg59Probably should be higher, career loser
Leftwich, Byron56Short on exp, bright future
Brady, Joe55Scant exp, up and coming


After running the individual COST scores, I grouped them by five Success Forecast Categories according to the following chart:


CATEGORYFORECASTCOST RANGEGRADE
1ExcellentAbove 85A
2Very Good75-85B
3Possible Success65-74C
4Probable Failure55-64D
5Likely FailureBelow 55E

.

HERE ARE THE PROSPECTIVE COACHES LISTED BY DESIRABILTY BASED ON THIER COST SCORES:

CATEGORY 3POSSIBLE SUCCESS65-74
COACHCOSTCOMMENT
Bieniemy, Eric74Solid choice, light coord exp
Frazier, Leslie74Respected, failed in MIN
Daboll, Brian73Good prospect, 5 yr coord
Moore, Kellen73A winner, age and exp hurt
Crennel. Romeo71Been there, part of existng problem
Martindale, Wink70In the hunt, not always a winner
Sirianni, Nick67Lack of coord experience
Morris, Raheem65ATL interim HC, too inexp as TAM HC


PROSPECTIVE TEXANS COACHES EVALUATED IN ALPHABETICAL ORDER


NOCOACHCURRENT TEAMJOBGROUPING
1Allen, DennisNew Orleans SaintsDefensive CoordinatorNFL ASST/FHC
2Bieniemy, EricKansas City ChiefsOffensive CoordinatorNFL ASST
3Bowles, ToddTampa Bay BucsDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST/FHC
4Brady, JoeCarolina PanthersOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
5Carmichael, PeteNew Orleans Saints
Offensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
6Crennel, RomeoHouston TexansInterim Head Coach
NFL ASST/FHC
7Daboll, BrianBuffalo BillsOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
8Eberflus, MattIndianapolis ColtsDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
9Fassel, JohnDallas CowboysSpecial Teams CoachNFL ASST
10Frazier, LeslieBuffalo Bills
Defensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
11Leftwich, ByronTampa Bay BucsOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
12Martindale, WinkBaltimore RavensDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
13Mc Daniels, Josh
New England PatsOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST/FHC
14Moore, KellenDallas CowboysOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
15Morris, Raheem
Atlanta FalconsInterim Head Coach
NFL ASST/FHC
16Phillips, Wade
UnaffiliatedOut of FootballNFL ASST/FHC
17Riley, Lincoln
Oklahoma Head CoachCollege Coach
18Roman, Greg
Baltimore RavensOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
19Saleh, Robert
S F 49ersDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
20Sirianni, Nick
Indianapolis ColtsOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
21Smith, Arthur
Tennessee TitansOffensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
22Staley, Brandon
La RamsDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST
23Swinney, Dabo
Clemson Head Coach
College Coach
24Toub,, Dave
Kansas City ChiefsAHC/Special Teams CoachNFL ASST
25Woods, JoeCleveland BrownsDefensive Coordinator
NFL ASST